Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 0.011202 0.012661 0.014239 0.016073 0.018147 0.020420 0.023101
2025-11-09 0.008660 0.010616 0.012909 0.015798 0.019344 0.023560 0.028958
2025-11-16 0.007434 0.009634 0.012359 0.015988 0.020700 0.026623 0.034651
2025-11-23 0.006444 0.008738 0.011712 0.015856 0.021491 0.028905 0.039433
2025-11-30 0.005869 0.008278 0.011526 0.016233 0.022897 0.032023 0.045520
2025-12-07 0.005128 0.007491 0.010790 0.015740 0.023005 0.033313 0.049122
2025-12-14 0.004590 0.006923 0.010285 0.015493 0.023392 0.034970 0.053329
2025-12-21 0.004085 0.006345 0.009697 0.015049 0.023414 0.036050 0.056712
2025-12-28 0.003888 0.006210 0.009751 0.015564 0.024914 0.039448 0.063919
2026-01-04 0.003664 0.006007 0.009675 0.015858 0.026073 0.042386 0.070619
2026-01-11 0.003481 0.005851 0.009654 0.016225 0.027366 0.045618 0.078047
2026-01-18 0.003221 0.005542 0.009355 0.016103 0.027823 0.047495 0.083327
2026-01-25 0.003001 0.005287 0.009132 0.016097 0.028497 0.049821 0.089650
2026-02-01 0.002754 0.004963 0.008764 0.015811 0.028656 0.051273 0.094553
2026-02-08 0.002609 0.004807 0.008672 0.016002 0.029670 0.054295 0.102546
2026-02-15 0.002429 0.004571 0.008418 0.015869 0.030075 0.056236 0.108670
2026-02-22 0.002338 0.004491 0.008439 0.016247 0.031457 0.060077 0.118726
2026-03-01 0.002138 0.004188 0.008021 0.015753 0.031127 0.060648 0.122433
2026-03-08 0.001988 0.003969 0.007743 0.015507 0.031250 0.062090 0.127972
2026-03-15 0.001828 0.003717 0.007382 0.015062 0.030939 0.062642 0.131728
2026-03-22 0.001789 0.003706 0.007492 0.015577 0.032617 0.067305 0.144419
2026-03-29 0.001728 0.003643 0.007496 0.015871 0.033856 0.071157 0.155703
2026-04-05 0.001678 0.003600 0.007534 0.016239 0.035276 0.075491 0.168390